Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $220,180$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263,440.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 85.0)}}\) (asimptote \(263,440.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,364$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,225.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,225.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,155$ on 2020-06-27

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,391$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(887 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,721.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 92.3)}}\) (asimptote \(44,721.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $344$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(24.3 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{357.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(357.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,461$ on 2020-06-27

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $195,883$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.6 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,799.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(176,799.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,082$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,777.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,777.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,619$ on 2020-06-27

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,267$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(369 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,305.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(41,305.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(0.51 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,408$ on 2020-06-27

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $178,504$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{255,791.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 93.8)}}\) (asimptote \(255,791.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,511$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(39.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,040.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 127.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,040.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,865$ on 2020-06-27

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,262$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(33.9 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,660$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(0.468 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,664$ on 2020-06-27

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,663$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,615.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 89.6)}}\) (asimptote \(104,615.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.34 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 95.9)}}\) (asimptote \(259.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,328$ on 2020-06-27

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,421$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,235.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(18,235.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $317$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(96.8 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(294.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,102$ on 2020-06-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 93%
Turkey recovered 73%
Singapore recovered 71%
Sri Lanka recovered 60%
Qatar recovered 54%
United Arab Emirates recovered 35%
Tajikistan recovered 28%
Iran recovered 16%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,616$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,217.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,217.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(58.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 17.8)}}\) (asimptote \(116.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $187$ on 2020-06-27

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,246$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,372.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 102.4)}}\) (asimptote \(42,372.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(7.38 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(26.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,057$ on 2020-06-27

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,033$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(208 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,286.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 64.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,286.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.93 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 13.3)}}\) (asimptote \(12.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $383$ on 2020-06-27

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,360$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,871.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 87.3)}}\) (asimptote \(49,871.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $311$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(44.9 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{295.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 48.0)}}\) (asimptote \(295.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,215$ on 2020-06-27