Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $220,180$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263,440.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 85.0)}}\) (asimptote \(263,440.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,364$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,225.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,225.8\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,155$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $44,391$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(887 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,721.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 92.3)}}\) (asimptote \(44,721.5\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $344$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(24.3 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{357.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(357.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,461$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $195,883$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.6 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,799.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(176,799.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,082$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,777.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,777.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,619$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,267$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(369 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,305.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(41,305.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $78$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(0.51 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,408$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $178,504$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{255,791.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 93.8)}}\) (asimptote \(255,791.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,511$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(39.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,040.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 127.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,040.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $54,865$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $43,262$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(33.9 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,660$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(0.468 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,664$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $93,663$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,615.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 89.6)}}\) (asimptote \(104,615.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.34 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 95.9)}}\) (asimptote \(259.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,328$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,421$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,235.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(18,235.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $317$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(96.8 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(294.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,102$ on 2020-06-27